Copying and distributing are prohibited without permission of the publisher
A new era for commodities
03 January 2012
Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century. The 21st will be different.
Read more:
Commodity prices
pricing commodities
McKinsey
Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold—barring a major macroeconomic shock—as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies.
Demand for energy, food, metals, and water should rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades. The global car fleet, for example, is expected almost to double, to 1.7 billion, by 2030. In India, we...
You must be logged in to view this page. If you are already a registered user please log in. Alternatively, you can request a free trial or subscribe.
Already have an account?
Subscribe
Subscribers have unlimited access to all current and archive content. Start your
subscription today - click on the button below.
Free trial
Taking a free trial will give you access to the latest news and analysis for two days
(excluding some surveys and articles). Start your free trial today.
