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Market view: Brazil feels the crunch

31 October 2008

Richard Bird, head of correspondent banking at Unibanco in Sao Paulo, and coordinator of the International Affairs sub-committee of the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban), comments on the effects of the liquidity crisis on trade finance in Brazil.

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One might excuse some Brazilians for having embraced the de-coupling theory. After all, a tremendous amount of progress has been made over the last decade or more to sort out important macroeconomic issues. Inflation is down, growth is strong, unemployment is at a low and real wages are rising. Brazil is a low cost producer in many commodities and what seems like every other month, we hear of a Brazilian commodity company expanding abroad through acquisition. A look at their neighbours by comparison, with few exceptions, reinforces this perception. But now that the full blast of the liquidity shock wave has struck, what happens to trade finance?

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So far, emerging markets have escaped the many problems that have troubled the developed world, but can they continue to do so?

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